All you need to know on the Hindsight Bias

A few months ago, I published a #30in30 regarding the hindsight bias. As I promised, during this essay, I will give you more information on the impacts on the legal profession as well as on debiasing this classic behavioral bias. This article will be a thorough introduction. Hence, there is no need to read the…

#30in30 – Two Bags of Marbles

You are presented two bags. One contains 700 red chips and 300 blue chips, while the other one is opposite with 700 blue chips and 300 red ones. You are given the choice between the bags. Take one and begin to sample with replacement. In twelve samples, you get 8 reds and 4 blues. What…

#30in30 – Choose Pictures over Words

(Reading time: 2 min read)

The picture superiority effect implies that human memory is more likely to remember pictures rather than words. The American psychologist, Allan Paivio, discovered that our memory uses both verbal associations and visual imagery to represent information. The advantage of pictures over verbal information has large implications in advertisement and education. But this effect also has an influence on the judicial system of jury-trial courts.

#30in30 – Why Everyone Thinks he’s Smarter than You

(Reading time: 2 min read)

The next time you hear the words “Had you asked me, I could have told you that would happen” you will remember: There is no rational reason to be annoyed. Our brains cannot help but think this way: Tricked by the Hindsight Bias, people tend to rate the likelihood of events higher when already knowing the actual outcome.
What is annoying in our everyday lives can turn hazardous when giving legal advice to your clients. Moreover, both judges and juries are likely to be misguided into applying a much higher standard of proof – especially in cases involving unresolved questions of negligence.