Escalating the Commitment

Escalation of commitment is the tendency to invest additional resources in an apparently losing investment, influenced by effort, money and time already invested. If the costs outweigh the benefits, the extra costs incurred are held in a different mental account than the one associated with the first investment. To visualize this fallacy let us use…

#30in30 – Fooled by Fundamentals

(Reading time: 2 Min read)

The Base Rate Fallacy is a formal fallacy. It occurs when too little weight is placed on the probability base rate of an event. People are succumbing to the base rate fallacy when erroneously judging the likelihood of an event without taking into account all the relevant data. The underlying mechanism is an overt focus on new information without acknowledging how this impacts the original assumptions. Old information is still evaluated and taken into account, however the newer pieces of information are given too much weight.

Confirmation Bias Affecting the Legal Profession

(Reading time: 3 min read)

“Although the phenomenon of confirmation bias would appear to be contrary to the notion that the legal profession requires, the application of an objective mind, the manner in which litigation – civil and criminal – is both conducted and adjudicated is closely aligned to a remarkable degree with this phenomenon.” – Hogan Lovells

Math for Judges and for Juries

(Reading time: 3 min read)

In order to call yourself a rational person, Bayesian Rationality is a must know. But what is Bayesianism? And how can it prove itself helpful to Judges, Lawyers, State’s Attorneys and even to Juries?

Understanding the plain math behind rational decision making, you will discover yourself to start thinking in numbers before starting to act.

Get Accuracy by Leaving Your Comfort Zone

(Reading time: 3 min read)

The confirmation bias is one of the most common biases in our everyday life. Like other biases it hinders us to make conclusions on a rational basis and therefore can lead to poor or faulty choices.

Where do your beliefs and opinions come from? Most people like to think that their beliefs are the result of experience and objective analysis of the information they have available. However, the reality might be different.