Imagine a world in which nobody is lying. A world in which no one has ever lied and will never lie. Which problems would emerge? How would life change? There would indeed be fundamental changes. Let us consider an example often used in criminal law classes: A husband whose wife falls in love with another…
The Rational Roundup, as previously announced, provides our readers with regular updates on rational thinking and current discussions among cognitive scientists. Our latest edition addresses positive psychology and the behavioral enhancement of your professional productivity.
(Reading time: 2 Min read)
The Base Rate Fallacy is a formal fallacy. It occurs when too little weight is placed on the probability base rate of an event. People are succumbing to the base rate fallacy when erroneously judging the likelihood of an event without taking into account all the relevant data. The underlying mechanism is an overt focus on new information without acknowledging how this impacts the original assumptions. Old information is still evaluated and taken into account, however the newer pieces of information are given too much weight.